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Projecte llegit

Títol: Valuing Josep Tarradellas Barcelona-El Prat Airport: A Hypothetical Sale Price Assessment

Estudiants que han llegit aquest projecte:

Director/a: MELGOSA FARRÉS, MARC

Departament: FIS

Títol: Valuing Josep Tarradellas Barcelona-El Prat Airport: A Hypothetical Sale Price Assessment

Data inici oferta: 02-02-2026     Data finalització oferta: 02-10-2026


Estudis d'assignació del projecte:
    GR ENG SIST AEROESP
Tipus: Individual
 
Lloc de realització: Fora UPC    
 
        Supervisor/a extern: Ricard Castro Navarro
        Institució/Empresa: AENA
        Titulació del Director/a: Enginyer de Grau Aerospacial
 
Paraules clau:
Airport, price, economics, value, market
 
Descripció del contingut i pla d'activitats:
This project develops an estimated market value for Josep Tarradellas Barcelona-El Prat Airport under a hypothetical scenario in which the airport is sold to a private or institutional investor. The work frames the airport as a cash-generating infrastructure and evaluates it using standard valuation approaches applied in airport privatisations and concessions worldwide.

First, the project reviews the institutional and regulatory context (Spanish airport system, AENA model, concession structures, tariff regulation, and key legal constraints that would affect transferability).

Second, it builds a financial model of the airport based on traffic, aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues, operating costs, and others. Traffic and revenue drivers are forecast through scenarios (base, optimistic, and downside), incorporating demand sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions and airline network decisions.

The outcome is a defensible interval estimate of the airport's sale price and the key determinants behind it, clearly stating assumptions, limitations, and the conditions under which the valuation would change.

Plan of activities:
(1) Background
(2) Literature and previous work
(3) Definition of assumptions and scenario design
(4) Construction of the financial model
(5) Results
(6) Conclusions
 
Overview (resum en anglès):
This thesis estimates the stand-alone enterprise value of Josep Tarradellas Barcelona-El Prat Airport under a hypothetical acquisition scenario using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) framework. The valuation model is based on long-term projections of passenger traffic, aircraft operations, revenues, operating costs, and capital expenditure requirements between 2026 and 2046.

The analysis combines airport infrastructure assessment with traffic-driven financial modelling in order to link operational capacity constraints, infrastructure development, and commercial performance to future free cash flow generation.

Three valuation scenarios (pessimistic, base, and optimistic) are developed using differentiated assumptions. The results indicate that Barcelona-El Prat represents one of the most valuable infrastructure assets within the Spanish airport system, with enterprise value primarily driven by strong origin-and-destination demand, high non-aeronautical revenue potential, and long-term traffic growth prospects.

The study concludes with an asset valuation range of between €9 and €13 billion and states that the valuation is significantly conditioned by the airport's ability to expand operational capacity while maintaining acceptable Levels of Service under increasingly restrictive environmental and regulatory conditions.

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